Sports betting systems online are a big seller and for good reason. It’s a fact that sports gamblers, as in gamblers in general, lose and lose big time. It seems that people who want to make money betting on sports are always on the look out for a sports betting system that will allow them to win. The problem is that I have yet to find a sports betting system that works. Most of these sports betting systems consist of chase betting, progressive betting, revenge betting or all the other forms of nonsense that doesn’t work yet continue to sell season after season. I received a request for a review last night on the Best MLB Betting System and eagerly check it out earlier this morning.
The Best MLB Betting System has been online for a grand total of 4 days as of this post but it makes so much sense I feel like smacking myself in the face for not thinking of this myself. The Best MLB Betting System at this point in time is a theory and the blog author, FadeMaterial, is posting his losing plays all year long for free in hopes to prove that the Best MLB Betting System is a winner so he can sell the system picks in the future.
Based on what I read on the site, it appears that the blog author was a former baseball gambler who had a way to pick baseball winners at a decent clip that allowed him to be a profitable baseball bettor only to find himself in the same position that most gamblers find themselves in sooner or later, on the losing side. He lost so much that he stopped betting on baseball all together. He figured that since he knows his picks are bound to lose sooner or later that if baseball gamblers did the exact opposite of what he recommends that those people will win and win big.
I was a bit skeptical at first but when I sat back and really thought about it the more sense his position made. It’s a fact teams favored in baseball win more often than lose. However, since a person betting on a favorite has to wager more than they can possibly win combined with the fact that the more favorites a person bets on in a day the odds of winning decreases. For example, I decide to wager on the St. Louis Cardinals who are favored to win. The money line for the St. Louis Cardinals is at -130. I would like to win $100 so I would have to wager -130. Statistically I have a 50% chance of winning as the Cardinal will either win or lose. However, I also decide to wager on the Texas Rangers who are also favored to win at -150. I would also like to win $100 but now I have to wager $150 to win the $100. In total I would have wagered $280 to win $200. Now here is the catch. Unless both the Cardinals and Rangers win I will lose money!
So why does the Best MLB Betting System make sense? He only posts plays that pick favorites and regardless if he is good at picking games or not the probability that he will post winners more often than losers is low. Since he only posts plays on favorites that means if a person were to do the exact opposite the person could risk much less money and still come out on top? How? Let me explain. The Cardinals are favored to win at -130 and are playing the Mets who are underdogs at +115. The Rangers favored at -150 are playing the A’s at +130. If I wagers on both the Mets and A’s and would like to win $100 on each game I would wager $86.96 on the Mets and $76.92 on the A’s thus wagering a total of $163.88 to win $200. Since both teams are underdogs I would only need one team to win in order to make a profit. If the Mets lose and the A’s win I make $13.04. If the A’s lose and the Mets win I make $23.08. Of course it is possible that he could correctly select both winners but the probability is low, especially considering he seems to post 3 to 4 games per day.
Lets go just a bit further. If he were to post 3 favorites per day, even with a flat wager on each game he would have to win 2 out of 3 games in order to turn a profit or win at a percentage of 66%. The probability, even if he is some sort of idiot savant, is low. It is more likely that he will lose 2 out 3 or even all 3. The more plays he posts the lower the probability of him winning. Of course, the Best MLB Betting System can only become a successful system if FadeMaterial is really that bad at selecting winners. Time will tell as he is supposed to post his plays for the entire 2014 season. I’m not insane and of course will not wager at all but I will paper chase for this season to see how it all turns out.
You can check out the Best MLB Betting System for yourself by going to www.BestMLBBettingSystem.com